Mexico has become a strategic pawn without a voice
In the global game of power, some nations move, and others are moved.
Mexico, the world’s 13th largest economy and the United States’ top trading partner, should be a strategic powerhouse. It has all the credentials: geographic proximity to the world’s leading economy, rich natural resources, a youthful population, and an essential role in global supply chains. And yet, it remains politically paralyzed, its voice barely audible in global decision-making.
Why?
Because Mexico is not a player. It is being played.
While the United States and China engage in trade wars and strategic decoupling, Mexico tightens labor rules and enforces stricter origin standards — not by sovereign design, but to comply with demands from above. While fentanyl ravages U.S. cities, Mexico absorbs the blame, while the weapons that fuel its internal wars flow south from Texas and Arizona. And while the global South begins to awaken — through the expansion of BRICS, new development banks, and climate justice diplomacy — Mexico watches from the sidelines, reluctant to step beyond its assigned role.
If Trump didn’t exist, it would be necessary to invent him
by Jorge G. Castañeda.
Many years ago, in the French philosophy exams at the end of high school (the famous Baccalauréat), students were asked to write a long essay (three hours of writing) on Voltaire’s classic phrase: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” What did the 18th-century satirical philosopher mean? What reflections could that comment provoke regarding other beliefs about human existence?
Today, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum has surely considered a similar idea: “If Trump did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” The statement may seem paradoxical, as the current president of the United States has done nothing but cause intense headaches for many heads of state around the world. But he has also given a strong boost to many of the Mexican president’s peers: to Zelensky and Macron in popularity polls, to Carney and Albanese in recent elections, to Xi Jinping in China’s sui generis political system. Claudia Sheinbaum’s case is similar.
Indeed, every new front Trump opens in the relationship with Mexico becomes a powerful antidote to the growing challenges the Mexican ruling party, Morena, faces domestically. The fronts with Trump occur daily: fentanyl, methamphetamines, tomatoes, livestock, water in Tijuana, water in the Rio Grande, migration, tariffs, USMCA, China, and whatever else gets added. This without mentioning the disagreements that have not been made public but surely exist at some level: Cuba, Venezuela, and others.
Fernández Noroña: the chaos agent in charge of Mexico’s Senate
by David Agren.
Senate President Gerardo Fernández Noroña pulled up to a party event last Sunday in a swank SUV. The Institutional Revolutionary Party took notice.
“.@fernandeznorona talks like he was part of the people, acts like an authoritarian … but he loves living like a fifí.”
Fernández Noroña predictably exploded, unloading on the PRI with a hyperbolic tirade.
He called them, “A bunch of thieves,” then defended himself saying, “Everything I have I’ve earned through my work and effort. Not like you.” He continued with the usual righteous line that politicians in the ruling coalition take with their opponents, accusing the PRI of having “plundered the country,” and branding them, “Repressors, plunderers, and frauds, as well as traitors to the nation. And that’s putting it mildly.”
Fernández Noroña is what the Canadians might call a “shit disturber” – a person who has long caused mischief in Mexican politics and whose reputation for picking fights and flouting norms precedes him.
A risky combination
by Macario Schettino.
I greatly appreciate the invitation to contribute biweekly to Mexico Brief. Since this is my first piece, I’d like to dedicate it to reviewing the current state of Mexico’s economy. Virtually all of the data we have predates Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, though some indicators are more recent and may already reflect part of the impact of the decisions he has made.
From 1980 to 2018, the Mexican economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.2%, despite the domestic and foreign crises experienced during those 38 years. However, beginning in 2018, there is a clear shift in trend. The cancellation of the construction of Mexico City’s new airport had an immediate effect on market confidence, which was reflected in a depreciation of the peso and a rise in interest rates. During 2019, that decision was compounded by the obstruction of the ongoing energy reform, and investment steadily declined throughout the year. Before COVID and the lockdown arrived, there was already a contraction—reaching -1% in the last quarter of 2019 and -2% in the first quarter of 2020, although the final days of that period can already be considered part of the pandemic’s impact.
Gabbard’s comments undercut Sheinbaum’s resistance narrative
by David Agren.
A new intervention from US President Donald Trump’s camp is casting doubt on portrayals of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum standing up to Trump’s hardline immigration policies. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, praised Mexico’s role in stopping migrants before they reached the US border - but credited that action not to Sheinbaum’s resolve, but to pressure from Trump.
“The President of Mexico told me, sir, she turned around over a half a million people in Mexico before they ever reached our border,” Gabbard told Trump. “We should be counting those as deportations because they never even made it to the border because she turned them around because you forced her to. So those are all people that never even came here because they got the message because you were so aggressive.”
The comments raise questions about Sheinbaum’s efforts to portray herself as a defender of Mexican sovereignty, as she gains praise at home and abroad for her handling of Trump’s threats and demands.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s stoic diplomacy faces its limits
by Andrés Rozental.
Much has been written and said about how Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, has managed to avoid the kind of treatment Donald Trump has often reserved for countries with which he has grievances. Some analysts have compared her approach to that of former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who took a more combative stance. Trudeau responded to Trump’s provocations - like his comments about making Canada the 51st state and imposing tariffs on Canadian exports - with reciprocal actions and direct criticism. In contrast, Sheinbaum has never explicitly threatened retaliation. Nor has she directly confronted Trump on major bilateral issues such as migration and drug trafficking - topics Trump campaigned on and has made central to his administration.
Her relatively low-key approach to dealing with Trump, calling for patience and delay before responding to the US President’s constant assaults on Mexico, was seen by a majority of Mexicans, and many international pundits, as a model for how to “manage” a relationship with the author of The Art of the Deal.
Notwithstanding generalized applause for her stoicism and her high popularity, I believe it important to judge whether Sheinbaum’s strategy of accommodation has actually benefitted Mexico more than Chinese, European or Canadian reactions in dealing with Trump.
Mexico’s federalism is under pressure - again
by Gerónimo Gutiérrez.
Andres Manuel López Obrador and to large extent his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum, are criticized for concentrating political power – even to the detriment of democratic principles and norms. This criticism essentially stems from a tendency to overlook – if not undermine – the separation of powers, from dismantling of autonomous regulatory agencies or placing them under direct control of the Executive, and from an explicit decision not to interact or negotiate with opposition parties unless absolutely necessary.
To be fair, these power-concentrating actions have been possible thanks to the fact that, since 2018, Mexico’s ruling party (Morena) and its satellites have enjoyed strong voter support which granted Mr. López Obrador and President Sheinbaum comfortable legislative majorities including the supermajority needed to reform the constitution. In sum, where the current regime appreciates a historic democratic transformation of Mexico supported by the “will of the people”, its critics see the dismantling of democracy from within the regime.
Be that as it may, one development that has received less attention is the centralization of power and the public purse at the federal level of government, something that is not new to Mexico but that had gradually receded over several decades.
How illegal logging is fueling CDMX forest fires
by Madeleine Wattenbarger and Axel Hernández.
“Because I saw they were destroying the forest, I had to come take care of it,” says Jorge Luis Morales of his decision twenty years ago to join the Teporingos forest-protection brigade.
Wildfires and illegal logging threaten the forest around Morales’s home community of San Miguel Topilejo, Tlalpan, where last week flames ripped through about six hundred hectares of woods. Burns have worsened since 2020 thanks to combustibles left behind by illegal logging operations.
Topilejo sits on the far southern edge of Mexico City, where it harbors 6,000 hectares of a community ecological reserve. Part of the capital’s recently dubbed “water forest,” the area remains governed by a communal land-holding structure. The brigade members, part of the Topilejo community, work year-round to reforest, prevent blazes and keep the trees healthy. “We take care of the forest so that Mexico City can have water,” Morales says.
Sheinbaum won’t recognize Ecuador
by David Agren.
Leaders the length of Latin Latin America – including the leftist presidents of Brazil and Chile – congratulated Daniel Noboa on winning re-election as president of Ecuador. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum refused to join them, even as the vote tally showed Noboa besting his rival Luisa González – though the latter alleged fraud without presenting proof.
On the day after the election, Sheinbaum drew on her predecessor’s playbook for addressing electoral outcomes not favouring her political movement’s preferred candidates. “We’re going to wait,” she said at her press conference the morning after. “Luisa, the candidate, doesn't recognize Noboa’s win. We’re going to wait.”
Former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador famously said the same – we’ll wait for the official outcome – after Joe Biden won the 2020 U.S. election over AMLO’s preferred candidate. AMLO eventually recognized Biden’s win – a necessity for a country so dependent on the US economy. Sheinbaum, however, has stated flatly that she won’t recognize Noboa under any circumstances.
