If Trump didn’t exist, it would be necessary to invent him
US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Image credit: The White House.
Many years ago, in the French philosophy exams at the end of high school (the famous Baccalauréat), students were asked to write a long essay (three hours of writing) on Voltaire’s classic phrase: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” What did the 18th-century satirical philosopher mean? What reflections could that comment provoke regarding other beliefs about human existence?
Today, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum has surely considered a similar idea: “If Trump did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” The statement may seem paradoxical, as the current president of the United States has done nothing but cause intense headaches for many heads of state around the world. But he has also given a strong boost to many of the Mexican president’s peers: to Zelensky and Macron in popularity polls, to Carney and Albanese in recent elections, to Xi Jinping in China’s sui generis political system. Claudia Sheinbaum’s case is similar.
Indeed, every new front Trump opens in the relationship with Mexico becomes a powerful antidote to the growing challenges the Mexican ruling party, Morena, faces domestically. The fronts with Trump occur daily: fentanyl, methamphetamines, tomatoes, livestock, water in Tijuana, water in the Rio Grande, migration, tariffs, USMCA, China, and whatever else gets added. This without mentioning the disagreements that have not been made public but surely exist at some level: Cuba, Venezuela, and others.
All of this undoubtedly keeps Mexican authorities up at night, but at the same time it ensures that the attention of the public, of commentators, of the opposition, and even of the foreign press is directed toward a group of issues where the presidency is seen favorably - perhaps even applauded. This applause is not entirely deserved. Basically, Mexico has yielded on everything Trump has asked for, except, so far and apparently, the massive presence of US troops in Mexico. Whether she complies willingly or not, or whether Trump is upset or not, is a minor issue. But the fact is that polls, the media pundits, and foreign correspondents clearly show: Sheinbaum is doing very well as long as all eyes are on the United States.
Every time Trump leaves us alone, things get complicated at home. Training/extermination camps emerge, corruption and abuse cases - either from this government or the previous one - resurface, the chaos of judicial reform continues, economic stagnation drags on, persistent violence remains, and doubts arise over official death data. Then come the criticisms from Zedillo and many others regarding the authoritarian drift of the regime, the embarrassment of closeness with Cuba, the indiscipline of Morena members in Congress and state governments, censorship attempts via new laws, and whatever else accumulates. The authorities practically beg for a new vulgar outburst from Trump which usually comes quickly.
I insist: none of this is exclusive to Mexico. Due to his media magnetism, the American president has the capacity to appear in headlines or on screens in every country in the world, when he talks about everything and nothing. And when he comments on a specific country - from Denmark to Argentina - he draws attention there like no one else ever has. Several heads of state and government have understood that this undeniable misfortune also contains several advantages: just yesterday it was the Prime Minister of Canada, who came out of the Oval Office show unscathed. Trump is not just a distraction, because the open fronts he creates should not be underestimated - they affect millions of people in dozens of countries. But they also provide a sense of relief from internal challenges: from the Liberal Party’s slim majority in Canada, to governmental paralysis in France, to the Labour Party’s mediocre electoral results in the UK - not to mention the usual complainers: Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
At some point, Trump’s attacks will become more harmful - such as his insidious comment about Sheinbaum allegedly being afraid of the cartels - and the spotlight he draws will cause more harm than the political benefits they currently bring. Likewise, internal problems, if everything continues on the current path, will no longer be so easily brushed aside under the national anthem. But for now, to once again quote the watchmaker from Ferney, Sheinbaum lives in the best of all possible worlds.
Editor’s note: Jorge G. Castañeda served as Mexico’s Foreign Minister from 1999 - 2002. This article originally appeared on Mr. Castañeda’s Substack, and is reprinted here with permission.