As new Ambassador arrives, what next for the US & Mexico?
by Gerónimo Gutiérrez.
Six months after President Claudia Sheinbaum's initial call with then President-elect Donald Trump, the state of US - Mexico relations remains something of a puzzle. On the surface, early exchanges between the two leaders suggested a cordial start: Trump publicly referred to Sheinbaum as an "intelligent lady he could do business with," while Sheinbaum described their conversations as "productive" and appreciated what she called his "respect for Mexico." Yet this initial goodwill has given way to a more confrontational tone in recent weeks, reflecting growing difficulties beneath the diplomatic pleasantries that challenge the foundation of Sheinbaum’s strategy.
On the early days of May, Sheinbaum confirmed that she had rejected her counterpart´s offer to use US troops to go after cartels in Mexican territory. Trump in turn opined that she was “so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk”. More recently, news reports in Mexico and the US have suggested that the US government intends cancel the visas and seize the US assets of Mexican politicians from the President’s party, allegedly due to links with drug trade and corruption. Raising the profile of these reports, the Governor of Baja California in the past days confirmed her visa was canceled, although she has alleged no wrongdoing and official information remains scant.
What was already a complex negotiation at the beginning of the year on trade (tariffs and USMCA review), security and immigration, has become more difficult with new irritants. As examples we can point to the case of water management of the shared river basins of the Colorado en Bravo rivers, or the decision by the United States Department of Agriculture to suspend all imports of live cattle due to phytosanitary concerns. In all areas of the relationship tensions seem to be mounting rather than receding. Perhaps the only exception is immigration, where migrant encounters along the border – a proxy used to measure illegal immigration – have drastically diminished in April to 12,035, from 179,737 the same month last year.