Sheinbaum at one year: A ‘complex’ operator emerges

President Claudia Sheinbaum at an event in Jalisco this week. Image credit: Presidency of Mexico.

by David Agren, writer-at-large.

President Claudia Sheinbaum swore the oath of office one year ago in a ceremony laden with symbolism as she became Mexico’s first female president. Flanked by female cadets, she took the sash from Infigenia Martínez – a prominent figure on the Mexican left and trailblazer for women in Mexican politics – as lawmakers in the lower house of congress chanted, “¡Presidenta!” She unveiled the logo for her government, featuring an Indigenous woman.

She assumed the presidency with a crushing electoral mandate, capturing more than 60 per cent of the popular vote in the June 2024 election – the highest total since the heyday of Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) rule in the 1970s. 

But she arrived at the inauguration in the shadow of her wildly popular predecessor and mentor: Andrés Manuel López Obrador – who effectively stage-managed his succession. And her inaugural address did little to distance herself from him; she campaigned on building a second-level on the “fourth transformation,” AMLO’s grandiose political project.

Sheinbaum, however, won over the world with her poise, professional image and her wardrobe. She donned a striking white gown with indigenous embroidery made by army seamstresses, which captured attention at home and abroad – with a source in US conservative circles telling this columnist in a WhatsApp message that day: “You know what though – I do like her dress. Sorry!”

Oct. 1 marked one year in office for Sheinbaum. Her approval rating sits at 73%, according to the newspaper El Financiero. Analysts describe her popularity as the product of arriving on the coattails of AMLO’s popularity, expanding his cash-stipend schemes and her deft handling of tariff and security threats from US President Donald Trump.

There’s also the sense of a return to normalcy returning with her administration after the constant chaos, improvisation and politicization of public life under AMLO. Sheinbaum jawbones the opposition and indulges the same tropes as AMLO – such as litigating the 2006 election.

She also speaks ad nauseam at the mañanera (morning press conference), though she’s cut the marathon session down from AMLO’s three-hour sessions and stripped out much of his vitriol. Her dullness, scientific background and clever use of bromides – keeping a “cool head” in dealing with Trump – has won her plaudits both at home and abroad. And her image management: tailored clothing with Indigenous embroidery, simple pony tail and image makeover – which contrast with AMLO’s rumpled suits – project competence and reassurance to the population, especially middle-class voters uneasy with her predecessor’s erratic populism and personal attacks.

“She communicates cultural connection, but also authority because she’s always impeccably dressed,” said Luis Antonio Espino, a political analyst and communications consultant.

Sheinbaum has moved out of AMLO’s shadow during her first year in office as she pushes to put her own stamp on the presidency. It helped that AMLO stayed out of sight, only re-emerging to vote in the judicial elections. 

“We always think of Claudia Sheinbaum as very much in line” with AMLO, said Diego Petersen Farah, columnist with the Guadalajara newspaper El Informador. “I think we've seen a Claudia who is much more complex and elaborate in her political thinking.”

She reversed AMLO’s stated security policy of hugs, not bullets – though it came amid unrelenting US pressure. She also made some steps to allow more investment in the energy sector without abandoning AMLO’s fondness for state-control, “but the rules remain opaque and the grid fragile,” according to Alexia Bautista, a former Mexican diplomat and senior analyst for Mexico at the consulting group Horizon Engage.

Democracy eroded further in her first year. Sheinbaum went along with AMLO’s purging of the judiciary, which culminated with judges aligned with the ruling Morena party being elected to the Supreme court in a low-turnout vote. She shuttered the transparency institute, INAI, along with Coneval, which evaluated social policy and measured poverty. 

And she proposed an electoral reform, which would likely weaken the National Electoral Institute (INE) and cement Morena control in congress by reducing the number of proportional representation seats. The outcome, Petersen Farah said, would return Mexico to the idea of “controlled democracy” as existed under the PRI. “It's a single party, or a hegemonic party rather than a single one,” he said.

The economy sputtered in Sheinbaum’s first year and her hopes for nearshoring vanished with Trump’s tariffs. Public finances strained under social spending. That social spending and hikes in the minimum wage started under AMLO led to an 18 per cent in poverty, according to the state statistics institute, INEGI. 

Sheinbaum boasted of that success, saying in her Sept. 1 informe, state-of-the-nation address that inequality had fallen so dramatically  that Mexico ranked second behind Canada as “the country with the lowest inequality in the Americas.” 

Fact checkers debunked that claim, saying Mexico actually ranked 14th in the region. Critics, meanwhile, questioned the figures and pointed out that the poorest decile of Mexicans received less of a share of social spending than when AMLO took power.

Sheinbaum returned Mexico to the world stage by attending summits like the G20 and G7. But she made her name internationally with her handling of Trump. 

Her clever pushback on safe topics – such responding to Trump’s renaming the Gulf of Mexico, “Gulf of America” by pulling out an old map demarcating “Mexican America” for what’s now the United States – along with her ethos of keeping a “cool head” and seeming ability to beguile the US leader addled the anti-Trump resistance and won her plaudits such as “Trump whisperer.” 

She celebrated Mexico being spared the worst of Trump’s tariffs and winning a 90-day reprieve. But analysts say Canada, with its combative “elbows up” ethos, effectively got the same deal. Analysts also say she got along with Trump by acquiescing often: sending 54 drug cartel bosses to the US, stamping out fentanyl labs and stopping migrants from reaching the US border.

“Security policy is half conviction, half pressure,” Petersen Farah said.

Her first year also showed her limits, despite being viewed as the most powerful woman in the world by some – a reflection of her dealings with Trump, but also her coalition having full control of congress and most of the country’s governorships. 

Scandals involving internal rivals such as senate leader Adán Augusto López, who is accused of handing over security in southern Tabasco state to a commander linked to the violent Jalisco New Generation Cartel, simmer. López denies any wrongdoing. AMLO’s son Andrés Manuel López Beltrán, a top Morena official, was filmed living large at a $550-per-night hotel in Japan.

The scandals could work in Ms. Sheinbaum’s favour moving forward as she pushes to exert control over the Morena coalition, which has AMLO loyalists in key positions and has thwarted her in congress.

“What has been damaged [by the recent scandals] is the power structure linked to former president López Obrador, who remains the moral leader of the ruling party,” said Bárbara González, a political analyst in Monterrey. “This is just the prelude to what will be the distribution of candidates for (the 2027 midterm elections). It’s Sheinbaum’s golden opportunity to shake off the remnants of the obradorismo, which she accepted. but with which she never fully felt comfortable.”