On Mexico’s imminent risk

by Macario Schettino.

Last Sunday, elections were held in Mexico—very unusual elections that are virtually unheard of in any other country in the world. Judges, magistrates, and justices were elected in order to completely replace the Supreme Court, to create a new Judicial Discipline Tribunal, and to fill the federal and local electoral courts, which had been incomplete. Not only that—more than eight hundred circuit magistrates and judges were elected, for a total of 881 positions.

With this election, and the law that made it possible, the Judicial Branch in Mexico ceases to be autonomous and becomes subordinated to the Executive Branch, which also controls the Legislative Branch thanks to the qualified majorities it obtained illegally just days after last year’s presidential election. Put more simply, Mexico ceases to be a republic and becomes an authoritarian system. The new judges will take office in September.

This new distribution of power—or rather, concentration of power—is a major change from just a few years ago, when the USMCA was signed, and it actually contradicts that agreement. It adds to changes in energy policy, which are also incompatible, and I don't think it will make negotiations for a new deal with the United States and Canada any easier. Even more concerning, the risk for existing investments in Mexico has increased, as the mechanisms previously available for dispute resolution have disappeared.