Editor’s note: Trump’s LA crackdown pushes Sheinbaum into a corner

A demonstrator holds a Mexican flag in front of a bonfire on a Los Angeles street. Image credit: ZUMA Press Inc / Alamy.

by Andrew Law.

The crisis in Los Angeles spiralled from a domestic political crisis into an international diplomatic tightrope act for Mexico. Former Mexican ambassador to the United States, Martha Bárcena, tells me in stark terms that the week’s events mean the relationship is trapped, “Like a hostage, in the middle of a very, very extreme fight for power in the US.”

In effect, it started with ICE raids targeting a Home Depot in LA and the detention of people in the basement of ICE’s downtown office. Protesters gathered spontaneously outside ICE headquarters, prompting White House aide Stephen Miller to engineer an unprecedented and aggressive response: President Trump federalized California’s National Guard. It was a move California Gov. Gavin Newsom immediately said was without legal grounds. It was, Newsom insists, designed to incite anger and provoke more demonstrations.

And provoke it did.

We’ve been inundated with incendiary visuals of protesters waving Mexican flags amidst flames and debris — images eagerly pounced on by Miller and Trump’s MAGA followers as supposed proof of a “foreign insurrection.”

Even before an additional 700 Marines were dispatched to LA, Trump's already shaky relationship with Newsom had collapsed, with Newsom calling the US President, “A stone-cold liar” on MSNBC before declaring, “There's no working with Donald Trump.” California is now suing the administration (US District Judge Charles Breyer sided with the State of California on Thursday but the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has temporarily blocked his decision), and Newsom has declared a constitutional crisis.

To my eyes, the relationship between Trump and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is not on any more solid ground this week. Sheinbaum denounced Trump’s military deployment, stating in plain language that she, “Does not agree with this way of addressing the migration phenomenon,” and emphasized that “migrants are not criminals.” All 32 Mexican state governors backed Sheinbaum in a rare, unified stance.

Sheinbaum’s response to events, however, was undermined by comments made weeks earlier about “mobilizing” Mexican Americans against congressional proposals for a remittance tax, contained within Trump’s so-called Big Beautiful Bill (or BBB). She has also recently “rejected” a US Supreme Court ruling throwing out Mexico’s lawsuit against gun manufacturers.

MAGA figures have used her unwise words as supposed proof of Mexican meddling in US affairs.

Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt even argued Sheinbaum’s comments justified increasing the proposed remittance tax from 3.5% to a punitive 15%. And the Stephen Miller-aligned influencer Charlie Kirk denounced Sheinbaum as “a bigger threat to America than Vladimir Putin.”

That is an unhinged take which overlooks the reality of Sheinbaum’s near total cooperation with the US. It nevertheless resonates with many Trump supporters. And there is a blazing through-line which connects that sentiment to the logic held by many around Trump of using US military force inside Mexico.

“She wasn't paying attention to the wider context of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill when she made the [remittances] comment,” Bárcena tells me, noting Sheinbaum’s team either didn’t grasp or didn’t communicate to her the full political implications. Bárcena has blunt advice for Sheinbaum’s administration: “Stop issuing statements that can be used against you.”

And Trump’s BBB is the key driver of events here, even as it’s slipped under the radar during this crisis. The massive spending package is central to Trump’s domestic agenda. And last week it came under sudden attack from Elon Musk, who blew up his relationship with Trump when he posted, “Kill the bill” on his social media platfrom X, threatening an already precarious congressional calculous.

But the heart of the BBB is ICE.

Bárcena points out the bill will nearly triple ICE’s budget, granting a staggering $185 billion — more than the annual military budgets of the UK and France combined, according to the FT. It will also secure full funding for Trump’s longed-for border wall, as Stephen Miller himself pointed out on X. Without it, ICE’s operations might not be able to last through the summer.

So keep that in mind as events continue to unfold. Because all this spiralled out of a relatively small, thousand-person demonstration which the LAPD described at the time as peaceful. To my recollection, there is no precedent for such an event triggering a militarized federal response. Yet that’s exactly what happened. And that’s why Miller’s rapid, severe reaction betrays a deeper game plan here: whip up chaos to justify not only the massive spending increase, but to also create the conditions necessary to enact the sweeping nationwide detention and deportation operations the bill will fund for the rest of Trump's presidency.

These are forces at work which are beyond Sheinbaum’s control. But she is duty bound in her position to grapple with them as they impact Mexico. And so she faces a daunting and delicate balancing act: rejecting the American far-right’s provocations while maintaining a cooperative relationship with a White House dominated by those same people.

Still, try she must.

But some in her Morena party aren’t making it easy for her when they take to X posting things like “shove my visa up your ass” to US officials. That happened on the same day US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau visited the National Palace, this week. While we still haven’t been officially briefed on what was discussed during that meeting, Landau replied to the Morena councillor who posted the remark with a sharp rebuke. The incident prompted party heavyweights Luisa Alcalde and Ricardo Monreal to remind their members to be respectful toward the US.

Sheinbaum is going to the G7 next week, where her first meeting with Trump is widely expected to take place at just about the worst possible timing. Rejecting White House attempts to criminalize migrants while keeping the relationship productive is as difficult as it is critical. Otherwise, Sheinbaum’s frequent claim, “Mexico is respected,” will remain just words; detached from reality, and destined to frustrate her presidency.

Editor’s note: this article has been updated on 13 June 2025 from its original text to reflect new developments related to the story.